The American Express Outright Card/Course Preview

The PGA Tour heads to California this week for the American Express. This tournament is undoubtably one of the most unusual events of the season. We'll see a three course rotation with each golfer in the field playing the Stadium Course (SC), Nicklaus Tournament Course (NT) and La Quinta Country Club (LQ), with the top 65 and ties making the cut after round three. The remaining players will then play the final round back at the Stadium Course.

The main metrics I keyed in on this week are below:

• SG: T2G (Tee to Green)

• SG: Approach

• Birdie or Better %

• Driving Accuracy

• SG: Bermuda Putting

A good approach/putting combination should determine who wins this weekend. Below is my outright card.

Ben Griffin: +2200

Notable finishes: T7 (2025), T-9 (2024)

With 3 appearances at the American Express, Ben Griffin has had two back to back Top-10 finishes here. He's gained strokes in both the approach and putting category, in all of three of his appearances. Since his previous visit here, Griffin has picked up three wins and has proven he has what it takes to compete with the top players on Tour. This is enough to warrant a bet on him for me, regardless of him having the second lowest odds to win.

Kurt Kitayama: +4500

No notable finishes

Although he doesn't have the tournament history you'd want, Kitayama profiles well here with an elite tee to green game. His putting is the one thing that can hold him back but in his two appearances here, he's had decent putting stats relative to other events. I'm backing Kitayama to have a strong ball striking display, with good enough putting to put him in the mix this week.

Daniel Berger: +6500

Notable Finishes: T-12 (2019), T-21(2025)

Similar to Kitayama, Daniel Berger is a tee to green specialist. He has a poor around the green game along with a streaky putter. With this tournament being a birdie fest, I'm hoping around the green game isn't as much of a factor this week. I'm backing Berger to have a big 2026 and The American Express is tournament I can see him having success at.

Bud Cauley: +13000

Notable Finishes: T-14 (2016), T-3 (2017), T-14 (2018), T-4 (2020)

Although Bud Cauley hasn't played this event since 2020, he has some of the most elite course history in this field. He can be a volatile player at times, although he did manage an impressive four Top-6 finishes in 2025. At this number Cauley is a great bet to make.

Lee Hodges: +17000

Notable Finishes: T-3 (2022)

Lee Hodges is more of a gut play this week for me. He is a great approach player but can often be unpredictable in all other major categories. Coming off the back of a good T-6 finish last week, I'm hoping Hodges can keep the momentum going and get in the mix this week.

Jhonattan Vegas: +18000

Notable Finsihes: 1 (2011 - Bob Hope Challenge), T-11 (2018)

Although Vegas hasn't had success here in recent years, he is a player that has pop potential any given week. He is a good Tee to Green player and has found success on the greens here previously. At this number, Vegas is worth the sprinkle.